NNT’s argument is that things that we don’t expect to happen matter more so we should stop forecasting (most) things because we aren’t going to get anything (important) right anyway.

He has lots of bits about why we delude ourselves with narratives (and how to prevent narratives from doing that, or how to use narratives to get ourselves to be re-deluded to believe better things), how statistics do nothing for us, and how these “black swans” matter lots and lots and we should leverage them.

The bell curve is very bad. Mandlebrotion randomness is very good. Being a successful writer require random good luck.

Most importantly, one must find their own historical foundation from the works of forgotten/neglected/partially ignored scholars.